Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Sunday, 25 September 2016

Decrypting the fortunes of theocracy

Post-Uri terrorist attack, the media glares were focused on what the most powerful man of India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi would say on Pakistan. Albeit, he chose a political rally to convey his displeasure to “Terroristan” (An analogy shared by noted author Chetan Bhagat for Pakistan), but the message was disseminated proportionately to satisfy the thirst of hawks on both sides of ‘Line of Control’, the self-proclaimed liberals, rationality bearers, non-ideological citizens as well as international stakeholders.

Amidst the conspicuous glow of tensions surrounding the decades old adversaries, a larger question remains unanswered. “Why do the nations born with a religious premise are far more unstable and volatile than the nations born with secularism as their core value?”
To understand this fundamental question, we shall take a look at what exactly we mean by a ‘nation’?

In The Ethnic Origins of Nations (1986), Anthony Smith presents the ‘primordialist view’ which states that the nations are historically embedded; they are rooted in a common cultural heritage and language that may long predate the achievement of statehood or even the national independence.

Does this cultural heritage necessarily mean religious homogeneity? How far has it been successful? It has been observed in post-colonial era that the nations which derive the legitimacy of their authority on religious foundation often found themselves trapped into the quagmire of a deep moral conflict.

The diagnosis of the problem does not require vigorous crystal ball gazing but a narrow understanding of history. Various reasons can be attributed to the issue, such as: -

Firstly, as the foundation of the State is based on the spirit of intolerance, hence the breeding of sleazy animosity and fissures within the society is easy with no diverse ideological and philosophical apparatus to neutralize such threats.

Secondly, these inbuilt theocratic impulses offer resistance to change within the society, which in turn renders intellectual development, modernity, innovation and spiritual growth ineffective.

Thirdly, it is easy to radicalize and manipulate the population because of lack of alternative source of opinions. This further ignites the fire of distrust and disharmony in the homogeneous society.

Fourthly, the debate regarding material economic progress is impounded by the forces of irrationality and religious orthodoxy claiming monopoly over decision making. Moreover, the State in such societies is mostly subservient to the dictates of the latter pressure groups, pushing the ‘Base and Superstructure’ theory of Karl Marx into obsoleteness.

Fifthly, the spirit of homogeneity of society makes it difficult to adapt the opportunities of globalization and liberalization which propagate the heterogeneous structures of society in an interconnected world. The results of such disconnect is evident from the emerging violence in the developed world, allegedly carried out by the alienated communities.

Sixth, as the religious sphere cycles through the phases of downfall and precipitation due to the inevitable circling of the clock, the State too gets deformed because of lack of availability of alternative forces of unification which are either unrepresented or underdeveloped in such societies.

Seventh, due to the prevalence of radical nobility, the fundamental rights of liberty, equality and fraternity are impaired with irrational theocratic discourses, which ultimately paralyses the dialectical progress that germinates diversity of opinions and synthesis of such opinions in consistently changing social dynamics. The acceptance of diversity of opinion broadens intellectual horizon and facilitates conflict resolution through multiple fashions. But its absence due to the homogeneous structure of society consequently submerges such States under the tides of anarchy.

Last, but not the least, the dominance of religious orthodoxy also impairs the accountability of the State towards the populace and any question of impropriety is settled with the deliberations of maintaining religious status-quo under the garb of threat to the religion. Hence, it proves that democracy and theocracy are non-complementary and the existence of such political associations could be a farce.

The forces of partition ignited the idea of States based on religion. On one side, the belligerence which established Pakistan celebrated the idea of ‘Islamic Republicanism’. The other side, albeit pressured by the hawks of religious supremacy, adopted for a sovereign, socialist, secular and democratic republic guided by the ideas of liberty, equality and fraternity to secure social, economic and political justice for all irrespective of belief, faith and worship.

As the Prime Minister today spoke to the belligerent hawks of Pakistan, “If you want to fight a war, we accept the challenge. Let us fight against poverty, unemployment, undernourishment, injustice, griminess and diseases. Let us see who wins the war first.”

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

What are the takeaways from the 'cancelled' India-Pakistan NSA talks?


With reference to Former Foreign Secretary of India Amb Kanwal Sibal's write up in Swami Vivekananda International Foundation, here is a brief reply to the esteemed dignitary over the issue.

"I might have to disagree a little with the pessimist assumption that the talks which were to occur last Sunday were merely an eye wash and could have signalled our weakness. Rather the talks were an intelligent move by the fantastic-duo (PM Modi and NSA Doval) to entrap the other side in a comprehensive dialogue on the issue of terrorism, on which India already has an edge with the comprehensive 'Doval dossiers'. Also, even with the last minute refusal to attend the talks (by Pakistan), the strategy of our 'fantastic-duo' has succeeded in isolating Pakistan with a global projection that it is unwilling to talk on terror and we give a prime priority to it, signalling our seriousness in combating terror.
Currently, the game is 1-1 because Pakistani side has successfully countered the above political move with an image that India is unwilling to talk 'bilaterally' on Kashmir issue and it is violating the letter and spirit of the Simla Agreement(1972).
What comes next in the coming months would be crucial because currently though the game is draw(tie), still India has an edge over Pakistan because the world regards terrorism as a more sincere and strategic threat to not only South and West Asia but to global peace and stability. Most of the world is least concerned about the stalemate over Kashmir question.
In Afghanistan, India is a major force, both US and China knows that and for Pakistan to replace India in Afghanistan, the public opinion and not only the political authority would guide the future course of action. India, despite being an energy-hungry developing economy, is not a neo-colonizer and this works in a very positive way for India."



Thursday, 25 September 2014

Happy Birthday Narendra Modi. With love - Xi Jinping


When we talk about India and China, the first thing that is highlighted in our minds is that these two giants contribute 2/5th to the total population of the world. Therefore, a Chinese President’s visit to India (after 8 years) bewitched global media.

For China, India is a part of its South Asian policy which itself is a part of its peripheral diplomacy. But for India, the visit embarked the biggest objective of including China in Indian economy to achieve the developmental goals. As per World Bank estimates, India requires $110 billion investment in infrastructure to come at par with Middle Income countries or we can say that India requires $1.6 trillion investment in infrastructure over the next 10 years to prove his metal in the geopolitical arena.

To make the visit a success, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made personal gestures to the Chinese President by breaking various protocols (the same gesture he received from Japanese PM Shinzo Abe during his Japan visit). India knows that Xi Jinping will be in power at least for the next 8 years and he is very powerful in China and almost projects himself as not only the President but also as the ‘Chairman’ of China, so it was important to lure him through such gestures. Unfortunately, the border incursions by the PLA of China breed suspicion and diverted the purpose and objective of the visit and brought security issues back to the forefront. Prime Minister of India raised the border issue with China for the first time ‘publicly’ and categorized it as the foundation of overall Sino-India relationship. In return, Chinese President used an encouraging formulation with regards to the border agreements in the joint statement by calling to settle the boundary disputes at the earliest. It is an unusual formulation with respect to a Chinese President, irrespective of the actual delivery of the promises.

Absurd claims by the Chinese consulate of Mumbai, of Xi Jinping planning to invest $100 billion in India (when its total investments worldwide is $80 billion) and thereby Indian media going berserk over the issue of reduction in the contemplated investments disappointed Indian masses. There is a huge difference between investment and supply contracts, therefore only MoU were signed and China will only realize the objective of investing $20 billion in India over the next five years. Moreover, Chinese investment in India will come in the form of ‘Investor Funds’ (usually 5-10 year) which will create production capacity in India and not in the form of ‘Sovereign Funds’ (usually 30-40 years) which creates infrastructure. But it’s reasonable because sovereign funds take time to negotiate.

Two issues drive China’s foreign policy in Asia Pacific region –
  1.       The very serious economic difficulties being concealed by China which is weakening the Chinese economy week by week.
  2.     Chinese isolation in Western Pacific region. One after the another frictions from his neighbors, and over arching it is the US’s strategy of a rebalance, which is on hold but not gone till now. China has a nightmare that it will solidify when India will join US as an ally in the region.


But China also contemplates that India is a very independent player with a sense of strategic autonomy and India will never be a part of any camp. This is soothing for Chinese ears.

Despite being his most ambitious project, China didn’t talk about the Maritime Silk Road project except at a very low key and not at all in the official address to the media because it knows that India is not willing to buy it, but on the BCIM corridor (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) issue, China has got a positive reply from India. Chinese MSR project is actually a repost to the American rebalance and it is busy to garner support from wherever it can. It got enough support in the Indian Ocean but Western Pacific region didn’t give him enough leverage. Also, India has also come up with MSR’s counter, with a project named MAUSAM/ MAWSIM (in Arabic) – Maritime Routes and Cultural Landscapes. It aims to reconnect and re-establish communication between countries of the Indian Ocean and reinvigorate the traditional sea links and cultural landscapes.

China will upgrade Indian Railways, supply us bullet trains, set up Industrial Parks, especially in Maharashtra and Gujarat. But there is a hurdle in the trade balance too, because Chinese banks are very reticent to lend to Indian Corporate houses (Chinese investments in India currently lies at $415 million) except to blue chip companies like Reliance, and there is no direction from Govt Of China to them to look at the Indian market as a serious investment destination. Also, the sectors in which India has strengths, like pharmaceutical industry, China is not giving market access to India till today. But in a joint statement, China has agreed to look up to the demands of opening up their domestic markets for Indian Pharmaceutical companies, IT industry, Agricultural products.

India seeks Civil Nuclear Cooperation with China but if it is established then India would be left with no grounds to oppose the same cooperation of China-Pakistan, except that India has a NSG waiver and Pakistan doesn’t. Also there is no sufficient need and evidence for India to go for a civil nuclear partnership with China, but if it needs to expand its resource allocation base, India could eye towards South Korea in this matter.

Broadly, the recent bilateral visit of Chinese President was accompanied with mixed signals from China where on one side it used positive signals to enlarge futuristic cooperation of our bilateral relationship, whereas on the other side, the security issues were dominating the negotiation tables too. Since 1988, India has a strategy to carry on the relationship with both China and Pakistan on two parallel tracks – One is the dispute resolution track for which the framework was set up in 2003 and the other is economic cooperation and development.


Friday, 19 September 2014

India's foreign policy under 100 days of Modi Government


Although there is no radical shift in the new Government’s dealing with the world but the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is more direct and knows what he wants. The emphasis is more on the neighborhood and Asia which is evident by the PM’s visits to Bhutan, Nepal, Japan in that order and Foreign Minister’s visits to Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, Tajikistan (for SCO summit). Breaking the band, there is no visit to West Asia, Europe and US till now and the whole focus is on Asia, which is a welcome step.

Prime Minister is not afraid to take on the big players like WTO regarding the TFA Agreement which was supposed to be anti-farmers for India. For it, instead of giving mixed signals, he straight away denied to take the US pressure carried in the baggage by Secretary of State John Kerry to Delhi, last month. PM’s persona and convincing power got India the first President of the New Development Bank, an initiative of the BRICS countries in Fortaleza, Brazil.

There has been enhanced multilateral and bilateral cooperation with the world by the new government which can be summed up in the following way (major initiatives) –

CHINA
India inked 12 agreements with China – The first agreement was about the opening of new route (Nathu La) to Kailash Mansarovar  which India welcomed with folded hands.

5 year trade and economic cooperation pact to improve the trade balance and obtain $20 billion Chinese investment in India (TOTAL Chinese investment abroad so far is $80 billion and that too mostly in Africa) signaled that India is open for business with India. But the Chinese investors would be cynical about investing in India unless there is a political steadiness between India and China which is difficult until the cross border incursions do not stop at once. Also, Chinese investments come either in ‘projects’ or in the development of those resources which can be ploughed back into its own economy for their own growth.

Modi Govt is far more active unlike the paralyzed previous government with regards to military modernization and defense cooperation with Japanese and Americans which will provide a balancing element to the dealing with China.

The PM (when asked about the expansionist policy of China by a journalist during Japan visit) said, “Within Asia, India, China and Japan should work together.” This explained the  balancing approach of the PM with regards to both China and Japan. Previous Government of India pretended to be friends with China but did nothing substantive to the issues of cooperation and pushed problems under the carpet.

JAPAN – (Enemy of my enemy is my friend – Machiavelli)

Under all the drum playing and protocol breaking, PM Modi was welcomed in Japan with so much vigor and he brought $35 billion investment for the next 5 years. He also ended the blacklist of 6 Indian firms from Japan’s Foreign End User List (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, banned after 1998 nuclear test). He also managed to bring US-2 amphibian civilian aircraft (it was not a defense deal). Most importantly, Modi successfully convinced Japan to provide financial, technical and operational support to introduce SHINKASEN/ Bullet Train for the Ahmedabad-Mumbai route.

Media was contemplating a nuclear deal between the two but it is not as crucial as media seemed it. Nuclear deal would be problematic because the Japanese have a far more rigid approach to it than our other partners and India cannot make exceptions with Japan (India had not done with US too even after all the heavy lifting was done by US for the deal).

Japanese want to elevate the dialogue with India from the current Secretary level (2+2) dialogue to Ministerial level, for which Delhi is not ready for till now. Also Japan also wants to bring the Americans into the room in an extensive way to elevate the trilateral dialogue for which India has reservations too.

India needs Japanese technology, investments but above all India needs a good strategic understanding and enhancement of strategic partnership with Japan.

USA
There has been no substantive development with USA during the first 100 days of Modi government but yes there is surely a scope of ‘good chemistry’ between the two world leaders (Modi and Obama).

Problems with USA include outstanding problems in trade, Intellectual Property Rights issue, inability of US to sell nuclear reactors to India and the problems with the civil nuclear liability law.

The biggest problem of India with USA is that US turns the bilateral issues to multilateral issues which is not acceptable to India or any sovereign nation like India.

SAARC

PAKISTAN
There has been no illusion on part of Modi Govt about the past experiences with Pakistan. Outreach to SAARC countries in May during the coronation of PM Modi could not have excluded Pakistan, that’s why Nawaz Sharif was invited. But we should get away from using SAARC as an instrument for our policy with our neighbors because SAARC will never take off unless our relationships are bilaterally stable. We need to strengthen BIMSTEC for a balancing element too.

BANGLADESH – (Pakistan is a problem and Bangladesh is an opportunity )

Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj went there with nothing except goodwill for their people. She said, “Our relationship is not with any particular party, but it is with the people of Bangladesh.” On Teesta agreement, land boundary agreement, she had nothing to offer except good intentions.

BJP has made gains in Assam in these elections like UPA did in 2004 and 2009 so the domestic politics may overrule the land boundary agreement even for 500 acres of land.

NEPAL
Despite all the hustle and bustle of an Indian PM’s visit to Nepal after 17 years, and $1 billion line of credit for infrastructure and energy projects by India, Hydel power project to setup transmission lines, MoU’s on Pancheshwar Development Authority and cooperation between Doordarshan and Nepal TV, Nepal backtracked at the last minute on power transfer and power production agreements. Nepalese have been unable to overcome their inhibitions and paranoia on water resources cooperation with India, although they would have been the biggest gainer out of it. Let’s hope the 45 days grace time given them to rework on the issue would bring positive outcomes.

SRI LANKA
Fishermen’s issue was focused more and it resulted positively with most of them getting independence from Sri Lankan prisons. Modi invited President Rajapaksa during his coronation despite strong opposition from Jayalalitha and other Tamil parties. This gave an image to Sri Lanka that Modi could stand up against Tamil parties for the sake of national interest.

BHUTAN
Bhutan was chosen as the first destination for PM Modi despite prior commitments to Japan about the same. There he inaugurated a 600MW hydel power project and the Parliament of Bhutan, constructed by India. All in all, it was a positive step to attract Bhutan closer to India after all the fall outs of previous government during which the small hill nation was preparing to sit in the lap of China.

WEST ASIA – (Area of instability and turbulence, seen by India by the prism of domestic politics).

Modi Govt has not focused enough on West Asia. Reaction on Israel-Palestine issue was a bit knee-jerk. Perhaps Modi shares a good rapport with Israel than the previous government of UPA. But this was also balanced out by the vote in UNHRC (Geneva) ‘against’ Israel’s massive bloodshed in Gaza.

Modi has not taken a strategic view to far more important developments taking place in Syria, Israel, Hamas (Gaza), Saudi Arabia- Iran, impending change of Government in Afghanistan, Libya and UAE’s involvement in bombing Libya. We hope Modi gives a kind attention to West Asia as he is giving to South East Asia and East Asia because West Asia is a far troublesome region. Our awareness on West Asia is abysmally low. Previous PM Manmohan Singh travelled West Asia for just 4 times during his 10 year tenure (2 NAM Summits + Iran + Egypt).

Foreign Minister, Sushma Swaraj had started the West Asian campaign with visits to Bahrain. Modi has a baggage associated with him regarding his views towards Muslim community. He can achieve a breakthrough in $250 billion worth Gulf region (where 7 million Indians find a place to live) by engagement which would also help him domestically.

OTHERS –
There have been major other developments in the foreign policy under Modi rule. For example – Nuclear deal with Australia and Uzbekistan, formal letter of membership by India to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, various trade deals with Vietnam for oil exploration in South China Sea via ONGC Videsh Ltd to name a few.

Building a set of flexible Asian coalition that do not include China and USA would help deepen ties with the allies of US and China as well as the non aligned Asian nations who are all seeking extra layer of insurance against the possibility of China’s non-peaceful rise. Delhi’s strategic cooperation with these and other Asian middle powers, including Indonesia, is likely to win greater domestic support than an Asian strategy that relies solely on American commitment to maintain the regional balance of power. For it to be achieved, India needs to raise the quality and intensity of India’s defense engagement in the region.

India needs to be multi focus in foreign policy as we’re not a ‘one issue country’ like many small countries. We’re destined to be a regional and a global player, therefore we must act in various regions, at various levels and with various countries. We know our national interest very well but we fail to have a coherent action plan to achieve our objectives because we’re hobbled by various things including our domestic problems.  UNLESS YOU ARE STRONG INTERNALLY, YOU CAN’T BE STRONG EXTERNALLY.