India's foreign policy under 100 days of Modi Government

Although there is no radical shift in the new Government’s dealing with the world but the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is more direct and knows what he wants. The emphasis is more on the neighborhood and Asia which is evident by the PM’s visits to Bhutan, Nepal, Japan in that order and Foreign Minister’s visits to Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, Tajikistan (for SCO summit). Breaking the band, there is no visit to West Asia, Europe and US till now and the whole focus is on Asia, which is a welcome step.

Prime Minister is not afraid to take on the big players like WTO regarding the TFA Agreement which was supposed to be anti-farmers for India. For it, instead of giving mixed signals, he straight away denied to take the US pressure carried in the baggage by Secretary of State John Kerry to Delhi, last month. PM’s persona and convincing power got India the first President of the New Development Bank, an initiative of the BRICS countries in Fortaleza, Brazil.

There has been enhanced multilateral and bilateral cooperation with the world by the new government which can be summed up in the following way (major initiatives) –

CHINA –
India inked 12 agreements with China – The first agreement was about the opening of new route (Nathu La) to Kailash Mansarovar  which India welcomed with folded hands.

5 year trade and economic cooperation pact to improve the trade balance and obtain $20 billion Chinese investment in India (TOTAL Chinese investment abroad so far is $80 billion and that too mostly in Africa) signaled that India is open for business with India. But the Chinese investors would be cynical about investing in India unless there is a political steadiness between India and China which is difficult until the cross border incursions do not stop at once. Also, Chinese investments come either in ‘projects’ or in the development of those resources which can be ploughed back into its own economy for their own growth.

Modi Govt is far more active unlike the paralyzed previous government with regards to military modernization and defense cooperation with Japanese and Americans which will provide a balancing element to the dealing with China.

The PM (when asked about the expansionist policy of China by a journalist during Japan visit) said, “Within Asia, India, China and Japan should work together.” This explained the  balancing approach of the PM with regards to both China and Japan. Previous Government of India pretended to be friends with China but did nothing substantive to the issues of cooperation and pushed problems under the carpet.

JAPAN – (Enemy of my enemy is my friend – Machiavelli)

Under all the drum playing and protocol breaking, PM Modi was welcomed in Japan with so much vigor and he brought $35 billion investment for the next 5 years. He also ended the blacklist of 6 Indian firms from Japan’s Foreign End User List (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, banned after 1998 nuclear test). He also managed to bring US-2 amphibian civilian aircraft (it was not a defense deal). Most importantly, Modi successfully convinced Japan to provide financial, technical and operational support to introduce SHINKASEN/ Bullet Train for the Ahmedabad-Mumbai route.

Media was contemplating a nuclear deal between the two but it is not as crucial as media seemed it. Nuclear deal would be problematic because the Japanese have a far more rigid approach to it than our other partners and India cannot make exceptions with Japan (India had not done with US too even after all the heavy lifting was done by US for the deal).

Japanese want to elevate the dialogue with India from the current Secretary level (2+2) dialogue to Ministerial level, for which Delhi is not ready for till now. Also Japan also wants to bring the Americans into the room in an extensive way to elevate the trilateral dialogue for which India has reservations too.

India needs Japanese technology, investments but above all India needs a good strategic understanding and enhancement of strategic partnership with Japan.

USA –

There has been no substantive development with USA during the first 100 days of Modi government but yes there is surely a scope of ‘good chemistry’ between the two world leaders (Modi and Obama).

Problems with USA include outstanding problems in trade, Intellectual Property Rights issue, inability of US to sell nuclear reactors to India and the problems with the civil nuclear liability law.

The biggest problem of India with USA is that US turns the bilateral issues to multilateral issues which is not acceptable to India or any sovereign nation like India.

SAARC –

PAKISTAN –

There has been no illusion on part of Modi Govt about the past experiences with Pakistan. Outreach to SAARC countries in May during the coronation of PM Modi could not have excluded Pakistan, that’s why Nawaz Sharif was invited. But we should get away from using SAARC as an instrument for our policy with our neighbors because SAARC will never take off unless our relationships are bilaterally stable. We need to strengthen BIMSTEC for a balancing element too.

BANGLADESH – (Pakistan is a problem and Bangladesh is an opportunity )

Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj went there with nothing except goodwill for their people. She said, “Our relationship is not with any particular party, but it is with the people of Bangladesh.” On Teesta agreement, land boundary agreement, she had nothing to offer except good intentions.

BJP has made gains in Assam in these elections like UPA did in 2004 and 2009 so the domestic politics may overrule the land boundary agreement even for 500 acres of land.

NEPAL –

Despite all the hustle and bustle of an Indian PM’s visit to Nepal after 17 years, and $1 billion line of credit for infrastructure and energy projects by India, Hydel power project to setup transmission lines, MoU’s on Pancheshwar Development Authority and cooperation between Doordarshan and Nepal TV, Nepal backtracked at the last minute on power transfer and power production agreements. Nepalese have been unable to overcome their inhibitions and paranoia on water resources cooperation with India, although they would have been the biggest gainer out of it. Let’s hope the 45 days grace time given them to rework on the issue would bring positive outcomes.

SRI LANKA –

Fishermen’s issue was focused more and it resulted positively with most of them getting independence from Sri Lankan prisons. Modi invited President Rajapaksa during his coronation despite strong opposition from Jayalalitha and other Tamil parties. This gave an image to Sri Lanka that Modi could stand up against Tamil parties for the sake of national interest.

BHUTAN –

Bhutan was chosen as the first destination for PM Modi despite prior commitments to Japan about the same. There he inaugurated a 600MW hydel power project and the Parliament of Bhutan, constructed by India. All in all, it was a positive step to attract Bhutan closer to India after all the fall outs of previous government during which the small hill nation was preparing to sit in the lap of China.

WEST ASIA – (Area of instability and turbulence, seen by India by the prism of domestic politics).

Modi Govt has not focused enough on West Asia. Reaction on Israel-Palestine issue was a bit knee-jerk. Perhaps Modi shares a good rapport with Israel than the previous government of UPA. But this was also balanced out by the vote in UNHRC (Geneva) ‘against’ Israel’s massive bloodshed in Gaza.

Modi has not taken a strategic view to far more important developments taking place in Syria, Israel, Hamas (Gaza), Saudi Arabia- Iran, impending change of Government in Afghanistan, Libya and UAE’s involvement in bombing Libya. We hope Modi gives a kind attention to West Asia as he is giving to South East Asia and East Asia because West Asia is a far troublesome region. Our awareness on West Asia is abysmally low. Previous PM Manmohan Singh travelled West Asia for just 4 times during his 10 year tenure (2 NAM Summits + Iran + Egypt).

Foreign Minister, Sushma Swaraj had started the West Asian campaign with visits to Bahrain. Modi has a baggage associated with him regarding his views towards Muslim community. He can achieve a breakthrough in $250 billion worth Gulf region (where 7 million Indians find a place to live) by engagement which would also help him domestically.

OTHERS –

There have been major other developments in the foreign policy under Modi rule. For example – Nuclear deal with Australia and Uzbekistan, formal letter of membership by India to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, various trade deals with Vietnam for oil exploration in South China Sea via ONGC Videsh Ltd to name a few.

Building a set of flexible Asian coalition that do not include China and USA would help deepen ties with the allies of US and China as well as the non aligned Asian nations who are all seeking extra layer of insurance against the possibility of China’s non-peaceful rise. Delhi’s strategic cooperation with these and other Asian middle powers, including Indonesia, is likely to win greater domestic support than an Asian strategy that relies solely on American commitment to maintain the regional balance of power. For it to be achieved, India needs to raise the quality and intensity of India’s defense engagement in the region.

India needs to be multi focus in foreign policy as we’re not a ‘one issue country’ like many small countries. We’re destined to be a regional and a global player, therefore we must act in various regions, at various levels and with various countries. We know our national interest very well but we fail to have a coherent action plan to achieve our objectives because we’re hobbled by various things including our domestic problems.  UNLESS YOU ARE STRONG INTERNALLY, YOU CAN’T BE STRONG EXTERNALLY.

Opaqueness of shabby "Secularism"

The sudden change in the topic of discussion in the Indian political arenas from the growth and developmental politics, that was about to get a boom under the rise of a major shift from the stereotype Indian politics of a shabby faced pseudo-secularism, that has been practiced since the divide and rule policy of the British Government in the pre-independence era and carried by our government post independence to polarize votes, to the newly optimistic approach of growth and good governance debates, has gained momentum yet again and thereby somehow dominating the new approach. But why exactly does it happen? Answer is simple, that after receiving the voter’s mandate through various opinion polls, the current ruling coalition cleverly shifted its focus to old tool of secularism and quickly fetched a shield to defend itself against the perils of misgovernance that is vigilant since they attained the power to rule.

Since the anointment of BJP’s poster boy as the BJP’s Campaign Committee Chief and the strongest contender for the prestigious post of Prime Minister  - Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, the ruling coalition in the centre and its entire leadership turned offensive, even abusive by crossing all the limits of absurdity. The political fight for 2014 has turned ugly day by day by creating a fear in the minds of minorities and by completely diverting the topic of discussion from governance to secularism in the name of 2002 riots, and by completely hiding the other massive riots that have ever happened in the history of this country (post independence) under the rule of Congress party, Meerut, Moradabad, 1984, Assam 2012 (to name a few). In a brilliant observation expressed in a piece written by a senior journalist Mr. M.J. Akbar in a national daily, he wrote and I quote," Congress never does anything in particular for minorities, but they are already getting sympathy votes by creating a fear in their minds.” What does it mean? It means that although, since independence, Congress has presented itself as the ‘Messiah’ of minorities to appease them through a simple tool of ‘creating a fear in the minds of minorities’ that if they are voted to power, then only the minorities (especially and with special focus to Islamic community) of India will remain safe and not in the rule of other political powers, but the ground reality remains that it has not done anything in the past 65 years to grow the concerned community or we may infer that it deliberately wants them to remain underdeveloped so that they do not know about their rights and they can be threatened in the name of security. The implication being," vote for us, else die”. The same political stunt is adopted by many other partners of the UPA Government as well those who are not a partner to them. For what reason? Obviously, just to polarize the votes and to get them in their favor as it is very easy to attract minorities in the name of their security.

Not only the political class, but the print and broadcast media has also learned a few lessons from the Congress party to promote polarization and to promote the debate of false secularism for whatever reason. I know you want some proof for that, okay dear, don’t be impatient. Does these headlines sound familiar? – “Dalit girl raped in Delhi”, or “Muslim boy killed by mob”, etc. Why? Why, “Dalit girl raped in Delhi” and not,"Girl raped in Delhi”? Why a “Muslim boy killed by mob” and not a “Boy killed by mob”? Why do we promote such divide amongst the society in the name of community and class?

In all this political mess created by such parties and the media, the minorities as well as the majorities should understand that macroeconomic growth is always inclusive. Infrastructural development, creation of employment opportunities, better educational facilities, better living conditions and economic independence doesn’t discriminate in the name of community. Any normal citizen from any part of this world would desire to have the above mentioned things for a better life. Ask yourself, irrespective of your community, don’t you desire for such things? I’m sure, the answer will be a big ‘YES’. So, the next time, if political class tries to divide us in the name of religion, please ask them all the measures they have taken to ensure the development of above mentioned factors that will make us lead in this competitive world that we all have desired for, since we have opened our eyes on this planet.

 Are we yet again pushed into despair? Well, I would like to intervene before you get into the usual habit of making self perceived notions about the future of India. My optimistic attitude says that, “We the citizens should understand that if we all are together and are not divided in the name of false secularism promoted by some elite political class, and strive towards the attainment of pre-defined goals with the strongest leadership, we will achieve all what we have desired for, since independence, and all that has not been achieved by the successive central governments since then. It’s already too late and we can’t defer the growth and prosperity of our country further as the opportunities will not strike consistently on our doors. We need to rise up above all these political tools and march forward together, hand in hand, without hate for each other, without any discrimination on any ground, without any mind wash by the cruel and clever political class people. We have already missed a lot of opportunities, so please do not waste much more time, if you want to be the number one in the world, ahead of all. Unfortunately, we have more danger from these pseudo secularist insiders than from the outsiders. So pull up your socks, and get ready to fight with all the evils that are dividing us in the name of secularism. We need a much optimistic approach towards our country’s future. A mere thinking wouldn’t help, actions are needed.”

 Today’s India is like an outdated aircraft flying aimlessly in the sky, without a pilot. We do not need an upgraded aircraft alone but also an experienced pilot too who can save this airplane from crashing down on the ground.”

PS - " I have not mentioned about the rise and fall of any country, because I believe that we cannot achieve success by being condescending about others.”

BJP - The party with a 'difference'

As the BJP is passing through a major shift from the traditional era to the modern era, the conflict of opinions as well as interests are bound to happen in a democratic party like this. Long term media speculations about the conflict of opinions in the principle opposition party of India has come out in public after the resignation of the party patriarch Shri LK Advani’s (Lauh Purush) resignation today. The veteran leader who refuses to accept the position of a patriarch and considers himself to be the top contender of the decision making authority of the party, has openly augmented the debate that everything is not fine within the Bharatiya Janata Party through his highly controversial resignation. The veteran leader, who is considered to be a strong contender of the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate (as per media reports), is finding it difficult to digest the delegation of authority to the slightly modern subordinates of the party.

We cannot deny or invalidate his contribution to the BJP since the inception of the party in 1980. Let us look at the structural increase in the strength of BJP (in the Lok Sabha) after the appointment of Mr. Advani as the President of the BJP during 1986-1991.

YEAR	No. of Seats won by BJP
1984	2
1989	85
1991	120
1996	161
1998	182
1999	182

We cannot overlook the fact that he took care of the party like his own child and sacrificed his whole life, for the party to learn ‘how to walk on its own in the storm of dirty politics’. As he is the founder member of the BJP, he has imbibed certain ideologues and principles that are of utmost importance to him, like other founder members – Atalji etc. At any time, he may not be ready to sacrifice his principles or party ideologues at the cost of attaining power. Perhaps that is the reason why he could not make it to the post of Prime Minister. He is often criticized for his tough decisions and his ‘no compromise theory’ on his inherited principles.

On the other hand, there is a sudden steep rise of the showstopper Shri Narendra Damodardas Modi in the party (Chief Minister of Gujarat) is a matter of concern for the party’s senior leadership (particularly Advani camp). He is considered to be a synonym of ‘development’ and ‘good governance’ by his supporters, both in the party as well as outside the party. His charismatic appeal to the middle class urban youth and his vibrant style of speech pulls a lot of praise as well as criticism for him. You may love him or hate him, but you can’t ignore him (I couldn’t find a much better sentence for his description than this). His hat trick in the Gujarat assembly elections in December 2012 and the sweeping away of the recent by-poll elections (two Lok Sabha and four Assembly seats) has made it hard for the BJP to sideline his Prime Ministerial candidature. His mass popularity among the nation (as seen in the recent media pre-poll surveys) and in the party itself is widely known and a matter of concern for both the Congress and the BJP. Although, he has not been formally announced as the BJP’s face of 2014 but the widespread speculations have affirmed his candidature. He dreams of a nation which is free of congress regime. In his own words – ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’

We should not forget that Mr. Narendra Modi is also the invention of the Lauh Purush like many other senior leaders of the BJP. It was Advani who saw the charm inside this amateur leader and picked him up from the RSS and promulgated him as the party’s campaigner in the then assembly elections in various states and in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections of 1990s. He supported him throughout his political journey, even during the black days of his tenure (2002 riots period), by going against the then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s decision to sack the Gujarat CM. He nurtured him with all the political tactics to face the political field, pre and post riots.

On the other hand, like an obedient student, Modi helped Advani in scoring the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat till the last 2009 general elections through his endless campaigns on behalf of his mentor by giving him the direct benefit of his mass popularity and the charisma nurtured to him by Advani.

If the mentor is so dedicated towards his student and the student is also obedient, then what has happened to this ‘Krishna-Arjun Jodi’ these days? Well, the answer lies within the persona of both the leaders. Advani is a man of principles, whereas Modi is a modern day revengeful politician who wants to reply the Congress in Congress’s own language. There lies a conflict of opinion between the two, in which Advani is more concentric towards staying within the rules defined by the party ideology since its formation, even at the cost of sacrificing power whereas Modi is in favour of pulling out the corrupt five decades long dynastic regime of congress, even if he has to go through the backdoor ideology of congress’s politics. There may also be a tussle between power sharing (as per media speculations) as both of them are highly ambitious. We should not forget that Advani was the Modi of 1990s and therefore he must be expecting from Modi to step aside from the Prime Ministerial race as he did for Vajpayee in the 1998 elections. In addition to that, the way media represented the fall of Advani in BJP in the last two days could be highly disturbing for a dominant personality like him. The protests outside his residence by the so-called Modi supporters worked as an oil in the fire for a highly respected personality of Advani. These ‘Krishna-Arjun’ are same in many ways and that is why the conflicts are arising because as we say, the same poles of the magnet repel each other. In these two different ideologies, or we say, ego clashes, the one who is worse affected is the party itself. Both of them aren’t ready to bow down or sacrifice their ideology, which is ultimately ruining the campaign and dream of both the leaders - CONGRESS MUKT BHARAT.
Although on a personal note, I feel that there cannot be a rift between a father and a son. According to my personal view, I feel Advani is disturbed with the elevation of Modi by the party president Rajnath Singh as he himself wanted to elevate Modi on a higher role and certainly not in this Goa meet. A father would never get jealous of his son's progress. Narendra Modi has gone out of Advani's camp to the RSS camp that includes Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari. This camp is continuously maligning the image of Advani in the mind of Narendra Modi by projecting Advani as a hindrance in his progress. Advani certainly does not aim to be a PM at this age and he is not willing to sacrifice the old allies of the NDA too. To elevate Modi in the party, Advani was waiting for the right move, and the right time for his projection. After all, he is also aware about the people's sentiments regarding the Gujarat CM. But the Goa conclave of the BJP inflated Modi with the hope of larger role by the RSS camp and sidelined Advani, thereby projecting Advani as a villain in the eyes of everyone especially Modi and his supporters. Furthermore, the protests outside his house by some miscreants broke him emotionally that is why he couldn't sleep the whole night and ultimately decided to resign in the wee hours of the morning. During the Goa conclave, Rajnath Singh asked Advani to be absent from the national executive meet and it was Advani and not Rajnath Singh who was negotiating with the JD(U) regarding the role of Modi in the national politics. In the crux, Advani is upset with the RSS camp, especially the national president of the BJP i.e. Shri Rajnath Singh. I know media would never feel the sentiment behind an old man's (father's) concern for his son, but it was very important for me to inject this paragraph of my personal thinking that I have grasped from all the happenings of today.

What happens next, when the patriarch’s resignation will be accepted? Tune in tomorrow to the #PaidMedia, near you ;)